By Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier (eds.)

Population progress slowed the world over within the final a long time of the 20th century, altering considerably our view of the long run. The 21st century is probably going to determine the tip to global inhabitants development and develop into the century of inhabitants getting older, marked via low fertility and ever-increasing existence expectancy. those tendencies have caused many to foretell a depressing destiny brought on by an exceptional monetary burden of inhabitants getting older. In reaction, industrialized countries might want to enforce powerful social and financial guidelines and courses.

This is the ultimate quantity in a sequence of 3. The papers integrated discover many examples and develop the foundation for potent fiscal and social regulations through investigating the commercial, social, and demographic effects of the differences within the constructions of inhabitants and relations. those outcomes comprise alterations in financial habit, either in hard work and fiscal markets, and with reference to saving and intake, and intergenerational transfers of cash and care.

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Additional info for Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3

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On Age Structures and Mortality 37 Improving Forecasts for the Elderly [Note: The discussion in this section reflects the literature as of early 2002. During the past few years, two important developments have taken place, which are relevant for the conclusions below. se/sprak/eng/ publications/) suggest that a statistical approach to predicting life expectancy and survival is to be preferred over a causal approach. Second, Alho’s approach to stochastic population forecasting (the so-called Program for Error Propagation, or PEP model, see Alho and Spencer 2005) has become the benchmark for preparing and using such forecasts (Tuljapurkar 2008).

When net migration is zero at all ages • Both its crude birth rate and crude death rate are independent of time • Its age distribution is independent of time A large number of mathematical relationships have been derived between indicators for fertility, mortality and the age distribution of a stable population. These expressions, some of which will be given below, have been used to estimate demographic measures from incomplete data and to adjust inaccurate population statistics. The relationship between the age distribution of a stable population and its levels of fertility and mortality is c(a ) = be − ra p(a ), (1) where a represents age, r is the growth rate of the stable population, c(a) is the share of the population aged a, b is the birth rate and p(a) is the share of the population that survives from birth until age a (“probability of surviving to age a”).

The United States faces another interesting trend, paralleling what I have described already for New Zealand (Pool (1999); cited also in Pool (2000)). Over the next decade or so, waves will occur simultaneously at 15–29 and 45–59 years, but then over the next decade will shift to troughs, only to reappear as waves again after 2030. This illustrates two major points, both of which have policy implications. Firstly, waves belonging to different generations may hit simultaneously, raising the spectre of intergenerational competition for policy and familial resources.

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